LAS VEGAS – Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 62-52 loss to Boise State on Thursday afternoon in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Tournament:
1. The prognosis
The sun came up Friday morning on SDSU’s basketball team.
The sky, contrary to reports from the night before, had not fallen.
The Aztecs, it appears, are still clinging to an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament despite a discouraging and abrupt end to their streak of 17 straight wins in Mountain West quarterfinals.
They couldn’t shoot, they couldn’t rebound, they couldn’t close. The Aztecs didn’t the eye test Thursday, and they haven’t, with a few exceptions, for weeks. Bart Torvik’s T-rank metric is customizable by date, and SDSU ranked 27th nationally over the season’s first two months … and 61st since.
But the good thing is the selection committee, comprised of athletic directors and conference commissioners with varying degrees of basketball knowledge, does not issue its 37 at-large invitations based exclusively or even partially on the eye test. You hear “total resume” and “body of work” quite a bit, and that means Nov. 6 until March 16 and everything between.
That means the Aztecs’ seventh-ranked nonconference strength of schedule matters. That means November wins against projected No. 1 seed Houston, Creighton and UC San Diego matter. Their 9-6 record away from Viejas Arena matters, even if they’re 1-3 in the last four.
The Aztecs are among six teams in contention for the final four at-large berths that, in all likelihood, are sent to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, for play-in games Tuesday and Wednesday. The others: Texas, North Carolina, Indiana, Xavier and Boise State.
The caveat: That’s four berths without “bid stealers,” the pesky teams that win conference tournaments (and thus an automatic spot in the Big Dance) in leagues where there are already solid at-large contenders. Leagues like the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference and Atlantic 10.
Each bid thief knocks one team off the bottom of the bubble. Last year, there were five — sending five teams that thought they were in the Big Dance to the Little Dance (NIT). This year, there have been zero — so far.
So you keep one eye on fellow bubble teams, and another on conference tournaments from leagues with only one clear NCAA Tournament team.
Mountain West: If you’re an Aztecs fan, you are rooting hard against Boise State or Colorado State to win the title Saturday afternoon at UNLV’s Thomas & Mack Center. The nightmare scenario: Colorado State gets the automatic berth by beating Boise State in the final, and the committee balks at taking five teams from a conference that has nobody in the Kenpom top 40 and drops the Aztecs.
AAC: Memphis is the top seed and only at-large candidate. But the Tigers are no lock to win, given their erratic history, and barely escaped a quarterfinal matchup Friday against No. 8 seed Wichita State. The AAC final is Sunday afternoon, just before the 3 p.m. selection show.
Atlantic 10: VCU probably has the resume (32 in the NET, 29 in Kenpom) to warrant an at-large berth. The A10 final is also Sunday afternoon, meaning the committee could be tweaking the bracket right up to the selection show.
Buckle up.
2. The bubble
What flavor of ice cream do you prefer? Chocolate? Vanilla? Strawberry? Pistachio?
That’s essentially what the bubble has become. Everyone left has flawed resumes in some way or another, and it becomes which aspects does the selection committee value more: metrics, strength of schedule, Quad 1 wins, and on and on.
Here’s a closer look at the six bubble residents:
SDSU (51 NET): Only Indiana has a worse NET, and going the final nine minutes without a basket Thursday was hardly a glowing endorsement, but the Aztecs excel in most other areas. They have seven wins against seven projected teams in the field or on the bubble and the kind of nonconference strength of schedule (NCSOS) that the committee has historically rewarded. Closing the season 3-3 without Magoon Gwath, who is expected to be available for the tournament, likely will be taken into consideration as well.
Texas (38): The Longhorns picked up a pair of Quad 1 wins in the SEC tournament against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M before exiting Friday, giving them seven for the season (more than anyone else on the bubble). The but: Their NCSOS ranks 285th, and 15-loss teams rarely get at-large berths.
North Carolina (35): The metrics, NCSOS (fifth) and tournament pedigree shine, and the chair of the selection committee is the UNC AD. Then you dive deeper into the resume and realize they’re 1-12 in Quad 1 games, the lone win coming against up-and-down UCLA on a neutral floor in December. The Tar Heels blew a great opportunity to beat No. 1-ranked Duke without Cooper Flagg in the ACC semifinals Friday.
Indiana (54): The Hoosiers and lame-duck coach Mike Woodson are 4-13 in Quad 1 but have no losses in Quad 2, 3 or 4 games. That’s doesn’t guarantee you’ll get in. A year ago, Oklahoma was 4-12 in Quad 1 and similarly undefeated in Quad 2, 3 and 4 … and was left out.
Xavier (46): Just two Quad 1 wins but 7-2 in Quad 2 and undefeated in Quad 3 and 4. The best thing it has going is being in the Big East, which got only three berths last year while the Mountain West got six (and the committee heard about it).
Boise State (43): A decent resume is getting better after beating SDSU in the Mountain West quarterfinals and top-seeded New Mexico in the semis. One more win and they’re in automatically. Lose in the final, and they still might have done enough to get in.
3. The alternative
So what happens if the Aztecs don’t hear their name called Sunday?
The NIT is one option. A new alternative this year is the College Basketball Crown, a 16-team tournament in Las Vegas sponsored by Fox Sports with two guaranteed entrants from the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 plus 10 at-large invites.
The Crown offers some advantages. It is played over seven days at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
The drawback is it doesn’t begin until March 31, a full week after the transfer portal opens. That could render it the basketball version of low-level football bowl games, with players opting out to enter the portal or avoid injury ahead of the pre-draft workouts.
The NIT has twice as many teams (32) but eliminates 24 next week, starting with first-round games at campus sites Tuesday and Wednesday. They’re down to four by March 26, two days after the portal opens.
And for that reason, SDSU officials have privately said they are more inclined to play in the NIT should they be snubbed by the NCAA Tournament.
The NIT format has been altered slightly from past years, when all regular-season champions not in the NCAA Tournament receiving automatic berths to its little brother. Now two teams each from the ACC and Big East get them, plus the top remaining team from each of the other top 12 conferences (of which the Mountain West would be one), plus anyone else with an average metrics of 125 or better (which the Aztecs do).
SDSU’s last trip to the NIT came in 2016, when it lost in the Mountain West tournament final and was among the last teams to fall off the bubble. The Aztecs reached the semifinals at New York’s Madison Square Garden.
