LAS VEGAS – Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 74-67 loss at UNLV on Tuesday night:
1. The bubble
There are two paths to the NCAA Tournament. One, of course, is to win your conference tournament and claim its automatic bid. The other is to receive one of 37 at-large invitations, 33 or 34 of which are expected to go to power conferences.
And it’s hard to count on the former when you’ve won the conference tournament only three times in the last 13 years and you have a young, wildly inconsistent roster that is without arguably its best player over the past month.
That makes the second path more important for the Aztecs, and that path is narrowing quickly.
Tuesday’s loss at the Thomas & Mack Center, only their third in their last 17 games there, likely dropped them onto the dreaded 11 seed line for the final few at-large berths. It means their resume — or body of work, as the selection committee likes to call it — will be scrutinized heavily between now and Selection Sunday on March 16.
The Aztecs have only two more guaranteed games to improve it: Saturday at home against Nevada, and the quarterfinal of the Mountain West Tournament. Both might be must-wins.
Here’s a deeper dive into the good, bad and ugly of their resume:
Major metrics: Fading. KPI, at No. 40, is the only one that still likes the Aztecs. The UNLV loss dropped them from 42 to 48 in Kenpom, and they’re in the 50s in the others (52 in the NET, 54 in BPI, 56 in T-rank). That’s perilously close to NIT territory.
SOR: Decent. The selection committee is known to consider Strength of Record, which measures your results based on the quality of your schedule. SDSU is 44, slightly better than most on the bubble.
WAB: Solid. A new edition to the committee’s team sheets this year. It stands for Wins Against Bubble and, according to the NCAA, “calculates the expected winning percentage for an average bubble team in each game of a team’s schedule and then subtracts that total from the team’s actual number of wins.” SDSU ranks 43rd, among the best of the bubble teams.
NCSOS: Excellent. The selection committee has historically valued nonconference strength of schedule (NCSOS). It encourages programs to schedule harder in November and December instead of feasting on cupcakes that bloat their metrics with lopsided home wins. It might be SDSU’s best at-large argument, ranking seventh in NCSOS. The only bubble team better is North Carolina at fifth; the rest of the bubble ranges from 39th to 178th.
Wins, losses: OK. The Aztecs are 8-7 in Quad 1 and 2 games, including one against projected No. 1 seed Houston that should carry a lot of weight. Most other bubble teams are below .500 in Quad 1 and 2. The other half of your resume is avoiding bad losses (in Quad 3 or 4), and the Aztecs have only one — 76-68 at home against UNLV on Jan. 18. They also are an impressive 9-5 in games away from Viejas Arena.
Pedigree: This isn’t listed on team sheets but it exists, presumably, in the minds of the selection committee. Reaching the 2023 championship game brings a level of respect, and indeed the Aztecs received a 5 seed last year — three seed lines better than anyone else in the Mountain West — despite finishing fifth in the conference. The Aztecs are 7-2 in the last two tournaments, and both losses were against eventual champion UConn. That’s got to be worth something.
Politics: A year ago, a record six Mountain West teams made the tournament but only SDSU reached the second weekend. The Big East and ACC got three and four bids, respectively, which did not sit well with them. The fallout, some believe, is the committee won’t take more than three teams from a Mountain West that was down this season. That might pit SDSU and Boise State against each other for the final spot, and both could be bumped out if Colorado State “steals” a bid by winning the conference tournament.
“There’s nothing easy about making the NCAA Tournament, whether you’re Indiana or Ohio State or Nebraska or North Carolina or Oklahoma or Baylor,” coach Brian Dutcher said, listing some of their fellow bubble residents. “Everybody is in the same situation. We’re not different than anybody else. Every game is important. We’re trying to play our way into the tournament.”
2. The brothers
It was Senior Night at UNLV, and sixth-year transfer guard Julian Rishwain walked onto the floor before the game with his family. That included his younger brother, Luke, a student manager on SDSU’s basketball team.
“After the first game against UNLV (at Viejas Arena), I looked up the next game in Las Vegas because I wanted to fly out there,” said Luke, a junior from Studio City majoring in business management. “Then I realized, ‘Oh wow, that’s their Senior Night.’ It was obviously a little conflicting for me, because it’s my brother and his Senior Night, but my loyalties are obviously with SDSU.
“It was tough, but it was fun game to watch at the same time … I was cheering for us and for him specifically.”
Julian Rishwain, three years older than Luke, began his college career at Boston College. Then at USF for three years. Then at Florida for one. Then at UNLV for his sixth and final college season, thanks to a COVID year and a medical redshirt for a torn ACL.
Entering Tuesday night, his career scoring average was 6.4 points per game. His career high was 25 against BYU four years ago while at USF. His season high for the Rebels was 16.
His line Tuesday: 26 points, 9 of 13 shooting, 6 of 9 on 3s, three rebounds and four assists in a season-high 39 minutes.
“I was emotional standing there with my family, thinking; ‘I’ve got to play a game after this,’” Julian said of the pre-game ceremony. “But I tapped into those emotions and that love my family has given me throughout the years. It worked out for me tonight. I used those emotions and played with a chip on my shoulder and had a little extra pep in my step.”
Said Luke: “It was pretty cool to watch. It was my brother and he was playing really well on his Senior Night. That’s a night to for him. And I’m proud of him, for sure. He’s been through a lot. But it was definitely bittersweet.”
3. En fuego
Surprised that a guy averaging 8.7 points this season and shooting under 35% on 3s went 6 of 9 behind the arc?
You shouldn’t be. It’s been happening all year to the Aztecs.
As elite as they have been defensively, ranking 13th nationally in Kenpom defensive efficiency and holding opponents to 30.6% shooting on 3s, improbable players have had career shooting nights from deep against them.
Eighteen times this season, in fact, someone has torched them for four or more 3s in a game. Eight times, guys have hit five.
Rishwain’s six wasn’t even the most. Utah State’s Dexter Akanno, a career 33.1% 3-point shooter, went 7 of 9 in the Aggie’s 79-71 win on Feb. 22 … after making six total in the previous five games. In the two games since his outburst, he’s made one and zero.
Bendji Pierre? The USD forward was averaging 2.5 points per game with a high of six while shooting 21.1%, then went 5 of 11 behind the arc against SDSU en route to 17 points. Both are career highs.
A few weeks later, Utah State’s Tucker Anderson came to Viejas Arena averaging 5.0 points and shooting 20.5% behind the arc. He went 4 of 7, including one with 6.8 seconds left to secure a come-from-behind 67-66 win.
Here are some others:
Josh Uduje (San Jose State): He went 5 of 9 at Viejas Arena, including three in the opening four minutes. He hasn’t made more than three in a conference game all season.
Dontaie Allen (Wyoming): He went 4 of 8 on Feb. 1 at Viejas Arena and is averaging 1.0 makes in the nine games since.
Jovan Milicevic (New Mexico): The freshman made only one 3 in his first nine games and had missed seven straight before coming to Viejas Arena on Feb. 25. And then went 4 of 6. And then made one in the two games since.
The common denominator is they’re all bigger guards or wings. SDSU became a smaller team when 6-6 guard Reese Waters was lost for the season, which meant more minutes for 6-2 BJ Davis, 6-0 Wayne McKinney III and 6-0 Kimo Ferrari.
Akanno and Uduje are 6-5, Allen is 6-6, Pierre is 6-8, Anderson is 6-9, Milicevic is 6-10.
UNLV’s Rishwain is 6-6. Teammate Jaden Henley, who was 4 of 6 behind the arc, is 6-7.
“They’re bigger guards, and we have smaller guards,” Dutcher said of UNLV’s 12 of 24 shooting night. “They sized us up, stepped back and shot it. I don’t think any of them were step-in 3s. The majority of their 3s were off the dribble and those are hard to guard. … And when the ball is going in like that (for the other team), it’s tough to win.”
