It’s easy to see why the Padres are open to trading closer Robert Suarez, and that’s not a knock on Suarez.
For starters, some teams should have interest in Suarez.
Just last season, Suarez cooked up a 2.77 ERA across 65 innings and allowed no runs across three playoff outings. His fastball averaged 99 mph. His excellent changeup, set up by his hot fastball, has induced batting averages under .201 in each of Suarez’s three big-league seasons.
This guy knows what he’s doing.
Two, historically speaking, there’s no franchise better than the Padres when it comes to getting great value out of the closer role.
Do you think it’s easy to find good Mexican food throughout San Diego County? Of course you do.
For the Padres, it’s been about that easy to find good or great value at closer.
We can assume the Padres believe that if they dealt Suarez, 33, his successor would kick butt. And if the new guy’s salary were far less, no one would be surprised.
Three, trading Suarez and his $10 million salary could help the team come under the luxury tax threshold, thus not incurring a tax and perhaps penalties applying to next year’s amateur draft.
A trade also might help the Padres upgrade their roster elsewhere.
Potential trade partners will have a lot to consider. Though Suarez’s salary is reasonable for an established closer, his contract includes $8 million player options for both 2026 and 2027 that have to be exercised or declined following this year’s World Series.
In effect, those options transfer financial risk to the employer.
Potential suitors will likely dig deep into Suarez’s performance and durability. There’s plenty of good stuff there. Over the three seasons, Suarez has assembled a 2.89 ERA and an adjusted ERA that’s 40% better than the league average. Suarez has placed in MLB’s top 6% in fastball velocity each year. He has always posted a good ratio of walks and hits to innings pitched, leading to a career WHIP of 1.01.
On the other hand, Suarez’s strikeout rate in each of the last two seasons has landed below the big-league average for a reliever. That puts more pressure on him to get outs on balls put into play.
Suarez’s durability profile is mixed, but the loose- and long-armed, 6-foot-2 right-hander is coming off his best season in of health.
He pitched in all eight possible months during the 2024 season, including October. Twenty times, the closer worked on no days’ rest. He got four-plus outs on nine occasions. He triggered all of his bonuses for games finished, netting him $3 million beyond his salary.
Suarez shouldered a consistent load ahead of the summer trade deadline, when Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller obtained three relievers to shore up the bullpen. Over those four months, Suarez was third among NL relievers in win probability added, a cool measure of relief value.
Baseball’s old-schoolers assert that a pitcher who features his fastball is more apt to improve his arm strength, reaping gains in both durability and velocity.
Last year, Suarez went full-on old-school. He threw the fastball 87% of the time, shelving his slider and curveball. His durability did improve. So did his velocity.
Preller brought the Venezuelan and former Japanese league star to the big leagues in 2022 via a one-year, $11 million contract. Suarez posted a 2.27 ERA with a good strikeout rate in his first season, although in-season knee surgery sidelined him for two months. Suarez opted out of his contract following the season, giving him leverage via free agency. Preller brought him back with a five-year, $46 million contract.
The follow spring training, on March 12, 2023, Suarez was shut down with elbow inflammation after a few outings. Though an MRI revealed no structural damage, it wasn’t until July 21 of that year that Suarez made his season debut. Suarez, who had reconstructive elbow surgery in 2017, came back to attain sharp form that September.
If the Padres do trade Suarez, there will be reasons to be bullish about his replacement.
As if the late-night coastal marine layer has made Padres closers extra tough, Padres history is loaded with dominant late-game relief. San Diego’s former closers include Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Trevor Hoffman and a Cy Young winner in Mark Davis. Returning good or great value on a cheap salary were, among others, Hoffman’s stand-in Rod Beck, Hoffman’s successor Heath Bell and Preller imports such as Fernando Rodney, Kirby Yates and Brad Hand.
