First look: Padres vs. Dodgers in NLDS

UPDATED: October 3, 2024 at 11:35 AM PDT

Here we go.

Again.

With a two-game sweep of the Braves, the Padres are heading to Los Angeles for their third matchup in the National League Division Series against the rival Dodgers in the last five years.

Only this time might not feel as daunting.

The Dodgers finished with less than 100 wins for the first time in three years, lost the regular season series against the Padres for the first time since 2010 and lost the last postseason matchup, when the Padres slayed the dragon in the 2022 NLDS.

On top of that, the Dodgers’ injured list has been littered with stars all season, which may have gone a long way toward closing the gap in the NL West as Los Angeles didn’t clinch the division until winning its last home game against the Padres.

No. 4 Padres vs. No. 1 Dodgers

SCHEDULE

(Best of five)

Game 1: Padres RHP Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA) at Dodgers RHP Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA), 5:38 p.m. Saturday (FS1)
Game 2: Padres RHP Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA at Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA), 5:03 p.m. Sunday (FS1)
Game 3: Dodgers TBA at Padres TBA, TBD Tuesday (FOX/FS1)
Game 4: Dodgers TBA at Padres TBA, TBD Wednesday (FOX/FS1)
Game 5: Padres TBA at Dodgers TBA, TBD Friday (FOX/FS1)

WHAT TO KNOW

Records: Padres (93-69, 2nd in NL West), Dodgers (98-64, 1st in NL West)
Head-to-head: The Padres won the season series against the Dodgers for the first time since 2010, outscoring the majors’ leader in wins and run differential by a score of 62-56. The two teams split their March series in South Korea. The Padres then took two of three in LA in April, two of three in San Diego in May and swept a two-game series at Petco Park at the end of July. The Dodgers won the last series in Los Angeles, taking two of three to clinch the NL West title.
Recent postseason history: The Padres and Dodgers are meeting in the NLDS for the third time in the last five years. The Dodgers swept the Padres en route to winning the World Series at the end of the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The Padres knocked out the Dodgers in four games in 2022 before losing in five games to the Phillies in the NLCS. The Dodgers have not advanced out of the NLDS since byes were introduced to the format in 2022.
Going to WAR (fangraphs): Padres — OF Jackson Merrill (5.3), RHP Dylan Cease (4.8), OF Jurickson Profar (4.3), RHP Michael King (3.9), 3B Manny Machado (3.8); Dodgers — DH Shohei Ohtani (9.1), OF Mookie Betts (4.4), 1B Freddie Freeman (4.0), OF Teoscar Hernandez (3.5), RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.8).
Health check: RHP Joe Musgrove walked off the mound in Game 2 of the NL wild-card series with elbow tightness. He’s due for an MRI before the Padres update his status for the rest of the postseason. SS Ha-Seong Kim has opted for season-ending shoulder surgery and will miss the entire postseason. … As for the injury-plagued Dodgers, 1B Freddie Freeman ed a long list when he rolled an ankle on Sept. 26. He is expected to play be in the lineup for Game 1, as is INF Miguel Rojas (adductor). Others questionable for the postseason include LHP Clayton Kershaw (toe), RHP Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John), RHP Brusdar Graterol (shoulder) and RHP Brent Honeywell Jr. (fingernail), while RHP Tyler Glasnow (elbow tendinitis), RHP River Ryan (Tommy John) and RHP Dustin May (flexor, esophagus) are done for the year.

CLUBHOUSE LEADERS

OPS: Padres — OF Jurickson Profar (.839), OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (.833), OF Jackson Merrill (.826); Dodgers — DH Shohei Ohtani (1.036), OF Mookie Betts (.863), 1B Freddie Freeman (.854).
Homers: Padres — 3B Manny Machado (29), Merrill (24), Profar (24); Dodgers — Ohtani (54), OF Teoscar Hernandez (33), Freeman (22).
RBIs: Padres — Machado (105), Merrill (90), Profar (85); Dodgers — Ohtani (130), Hernandez (99), Freeman (89).
Steals: Padres — SS Ha-Seong Kim (22), Merrill (16), INF Xander Bogaerts (13); Dodgers — Ohtani (59), Betts (16), Hernandez (12).
Saves: Padres — RHP Robert Suarez (36-for-42, 2.77 ERA), LHP Tanner Scott (22-for-24, 1.75 ERA); Dodgers — RHP Evan Phillips (18-for-22, 3.62 ERA), RHP Michael Kopech (15-for-20, 3.46 ERA), RHP Daniel Hudson (10-for-17, 3.00 ERA).
Holds: Padres — RHP Jason Adam (31, 1.95 ERA), RHP Jeremiah Estrada (16, 2.95 ERA), LHP Adrián Morejón (12, 2.83 ERA); Dodgers— Hudson (17), RHP Blake Treinen (16, 1.93 ERA), RHP Joe Kelly (13, 4.78 ERA), LHP Alex Vesia (13, 1.76 ERA).

THINGS TO WATCH

The owner of the first 50-50 season in MLB history, presumptive NL MVP Shohei Ohtani led the majors in runs (134) and total bases (411) and the NL in on-base percentage (.390), slugging (.646), OPS (1.036), homers (54) an RBIS (130). He blasted just one of those home runs this year against the Padres, who have largely held him down in his MLB career as only the Phillies (.746) have a lower opponent OPS than the Padres’ .752 mark. Ohtani, however, closed the season on a .628/.667/1.186 run that saw him hit six homers in the final 10 games and threaten Luis Arraez’s claim to a third-straight batting title. That hot pocket included hitting .546/.615/.818 as the Dodgers won the first series of the season against the Padres (it might have been a sweep had 3B Manny Machado not started a historic game-ending triple play with Ohtani on deck to clinch the Padres’ postseason spot).
All eyes in Japan will be on this series as Yu Darvish is lined up to face Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2O, as well as Ohtani. To date, the Dodgers DH is 1-for-5 with two strikeouts against Darvish. Meantime, Ohtani has owned Padres LHP Yuki Matsui so far, doubling three times off him in five at-bats. Ohtani has struck out just once against Matsui.
OF Fernando Tatis Jr. homered on the first pitch he saw on Tuesday in his first postseason game in four years. He went 4-for-6 with two walks in the series and is a .393/.514/.786 hitter in eight postseason games in his career. Tatis also thrives against the Dodgers, mashing 19 homers in 61 career games against LA (.870 OPS) and going deep more times at Dodger Stadium (12, .992 OPS) than he has at any other visiting ballpark.

CROSS-TOWN CONNECTIONS

Before g with the Padres in February 2019, 3B Manny Machado helped get the Dodgers to the World Series after a deadline move from Baltimore to Los Angeles. RHP Yu Darvish was a deadline pick-up a year earlier for Los Angeles’ push into the Fall Classic. The Dodgers came up empty on both World Series trips. INF Nick Ahmed played briefly for the Dodgers this season before ultimately g a minor league deal with the Padres and being activated for the last road trip of the season, while OF David Peralta played for Los Angeles last year. As for the Dodgers, manager Dave Roberts (Rancho Buena Vista HS), pitching coach Mark Prior (University HS), LHP Alex Vesia (Steele Canyon HS) and OF Tommy Edman (La Jolla Country Day) are San Diegans, with Roberts playing and coaching for the Padres before getting the Dodgers’ gig in 2016. Bullpen coach Josh Bard caught for the Padres (2006-08), senior vice president Josh Byrnes was fired as Padres GM the year A.J. Preller took over in San Diego and vice president Billy Gasparino was Byrnes’ amateur scouting director with the Padres. Preller and senior advisor Logan White previously worked in scouting/player personnel for the Dodgers.