The Chargers are listed at 8.5 victories on NFL over-under betting lines.
Take the over because of the J.H. dudes – Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert.
Harbaugh counts as a multiple-win upgrade over Brandon Staley, whose last team went 5-12. He’ll increase competitiveness and weed out confusion. He’s a true head coach, making him a rarity in Spanos Land. He understands how he wants to win, what in fact works and how to tweak things both before and during games.
Herbert’s talent influenced Harbaugh’s decision to leave a comfortable job at Michigan. The coach, 60, and quarterback, 26, will make for one of the NFL’s most promising pairings over the next several years.
At 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds, Herbert brings much more arm strength, speed and power than Harbaugh did in his 144 NFL games as a starting QB.
He’s a better er than Harbaugh’s previous NFL QB, Colin Kaepernick. A run-and- threat, Kaepernick led Harbaugh’s second 49ers team to the Super Bowl with a big assist from the NFL’s second-ranked defense.
But Herbert owns no playoff victories and a 30-33 career record through four seasons and one postseason game.
Harbaugh needs to figure out why Herbert and his blockers looked confused last year in several do-or-die drives under coordinator Kellen Moore and Staley.
Surprised too often in crunch time by late-game defensive wrinkles, Herbert and friends should have better final-test answers this year. A ground game designed by Greg Roman could provide a needed change of pace.
The line might be the best of the five to front Herbert. Harbaugh and Roman’s fondness for heavy personnel, unbalanced lines and physical tight ends will produce a more physical style.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell ranks the team’s group of -catchers and running backs dead last in the NFL.
It’s justified. The offense won’t recall “Air Coryell.” But it’s never been about style points for Harbaugh, who understands that winning begins with not losing.
Defensively, expect versatile end Tuli Tuipulotu, still just 21, to shine under rookie coordinator Jesse Minter, a former protege of new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald, who directed the Ravens’ NFL-leading defense last year after a season under Harbaugh in Ann Arbor.
There should be less Chargering under Harbaugh, too.
Under the three consecutive, inexpensive and malleable rookie head coaches Dean Spanos and John Spanos hired beginning with Mike McCoy in 2013, the Chargers played 104 games decided by seven points or fewer. They lost 60 of those close games, a win rate of .423.
Harbaugh’s four Niners teams, on balance, won close games at a much higher rate – 67 percent – by going 20-10 between 2011 and 2014.
The Spanoses skimped on infrastructure for several years, surprising no one south of Camp Pendleton.
Coupled with the franchise’s increased revenues via the NFL-sponsored relocation to the privately financed, $5.5 billion Kroenke Dome, Harbaugh had the clout to demand the Spanoses invest more in the football structure and relinquish some football power.
Overcoming the psychic weight of years of Chargering won’t be easy.
But with Mr. Khaki Pants calling the shots, the Chargers aren’t a fake NFL franchise anymore.
Elsewhere
Take the 5.5-under on the Broncos, meaning they’ll win five games or fewer.
Coach Sean Payton wanted the Chargers’ job entering two offseasons ago, only to see the Spanoses give Staley a third season. (Draft-pick compensation attached to Payton argued further against the Spanoses ever hiring him.)
Payton will try to overcome the “JHs” – Herbert and Harbaugh – by attempting to transform rookie Bo Nix, a 24-year-old who played in 61 collegiate games, into the team’s best QB since Peyton Manning retired.
There just isn’t enough talent on offense or defense to believe the Broncos are destined for anywhere but a single-digit slot in the 2025 draft.
Perhaps San Diego’s JL Skinner can help shrink the odds. A safety who scored 11 offensive touchdowns for Point Loma High School before going to Boise State, the 6-foot-4, 210-pound Skinner will try to win a job in training camp. The Broncos took him in the sixth round of the 2023 draft, soon after hiring Payton.
• Keep it simple with the Rams (8.5). Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and a beefed-up interior offensive line equate to a winning season, so take the over.
