Rep. Mike Levin came into the election year with the wind in his sails.
Having survived a hotly contested rematch against a well-known opponent in what was supposed to be a Republican surge two years ago, the San Juan Capistrano Democrat entered 2024 in his purple district a clear favorite.
There were many advantages: incumbency, a presidential election year that traditionally boosts Democratic turnout, successful legislation and a hard-fought Republican primary contest won by Orange County businessman Matt Gunderson.
The wind may have shifted following recent, startling developments. Whether, or how much, that throws Levin off course is unclear.
The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and the continuing questions about President Joe Biden’s mental acuity haven’t just upended the race at the top of the ticket, but jolted down-ballot races that will determine the control of Congress.
The day before the Saturday attack on Trump, Levin had ed a growing number of Democratic of Congress — including San Diego’s Scott Peters — urging Biden not to run for re-election and “ the torch” to new leadership.
These developments – in blunt political – seem to work to Trump’s advantage and potentially for some Republicans down the ballot — or at least make the GOP presidential nominee less of a liability where he is disliked. At least for now.
But there’s nearly four months to Election Day on Nov. 5, and a lot of dust has yet to settle.
The 49th Congressional District, which straddles the San Diego-Orange County line, is a slightly Democratic-leaning district where Levin was first elected in 2018. While competitive, it hasn’t been considered a top battleground district. Trump has been a problematic presence for Levin’s GOP opponents in that district.
UC San Diego political scientist Thad Kousser recently took a long view of the political dynamics at play and was cautious about assessing the impacts of the tumultuous events on this or any other race so soon.
“The nation’s clearly coming to grips with this,” he said.
But he questioned whether these developments would shift public opinion much.
He noted there have been seismic political events over the past eight years: Trump’s victory in 2016, his defeat in 2020, the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capital and the effort to overturn Biden’s election, the former president’s conviction on 34 counts linked to allegations of paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels and other pending legal cases.
Yet the divided electorate has remained largely locked in.
“We have not seen the swings, the ebb and flow of popularity . . . even with congressional polling,” Kousser said.
As before, Trump is atop national polls and surveys in key swing states taken after the recent presidential debate, where Biden at times bordered on incoherence — which triggered the calls for him to withdraw from alarmed Democrats.
The immediacy of the shooting and Democrats turning against Biden aside, Kousser didn’t foresee a major shake up in the 49th District race at this point.
“It will take a lot for this race to be jarred from the trajectory it’s on,” Kousser said. “. . . There are so many other districts that are even more competitive in California.”
He noted those districts had close races in 2022 (when Levin won by a comparatively comfortable 5.2 percentage points), or have no incumbent this year.
“If this district flips, it will be part of a big red wave,” Kousser added. “If it doesn’t, this is probably part of a typical nail-biting election.”
For now, the widely-watched Cook Political Report continues to list the 49th District “likely Democrat,” but it doesn’t appear the analysis has been updated recently.
Trump promised to talk more about unity at this week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. While presidential nominees often get a post-convention bounce in the polls, such a shift in approach by Trump could have longer-term appeal to the small segment of undecided voters — if he sticks with it.
Though campaigns downshifted for a few days, on Monday both Levin and Gunderson re-emphasized what they plan to be talking about as the race gears up.
The Republican challenger mentioned border security and taming “rampant inflation,” along with education, parents rights and crime. Levin said he would continue to work to “improve veterans’ benefits, reduce costs, and upgrade our infrastructure.”
“This doesn’t change my focus,” Gunderson said of the recent developments, adding that he’s “not looking to be on anybody’s coattails.”
He also again emphasized how consistently Levin votes with Biden, suggesting he believes that’s a liability. Levin and Democrats have criticized Trump as a threat to democracy, abortion access and individual rights — and sought to tie the former president, who is so unpopular in Southern California, to Gunderson.
It’s hard to imagine that changing, though the choice of rhetoric may be trickier.
Both candidates — like the ones at the top of their respective tickets — made pleas for creating a sense of unity and civility despite political differences.
“We have to open our eyes . . . that we have political opponents, not political enemies,” Gunderson said.
“Our political opponents are not our enemies,” Levin said.
It may be unrealistic to think the threatening rhetoric and acts in these harsh times will fade significantly. But it never hurts to hope.
“We need to step away from those kinds of politics,” Kousser said.
That would be a step in the right direction.
