I can guarantee you three things about next year’s NFL Draft.
First, we won’t have to wait 15 picks before a defensive player is drafted. We might not even have to wait two.
Second, we won’t witness six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks. We’ll likely have to wait two whole days to reach that number.
Finally, a team will almost certainly pick a player that will cause most of us to scratch our heads and fans to go ALL CAPS on social media. Such is life with the “Annual Player Selection Meeting.”
The NFL has morphed into the best reality show on television, with the draft operating as its reunion episodes and a reminder of why we stay glued to various screens during football season.
My process begins 18 months out, and my watchlist currently stands at 96 players for next year. It’ll balloon to 200-plus by August.
Before I do close the book on my 2023-2024 draft cycle, I couldn’t possibly leave you without at least a glimpse of the college football season and the best players we’ll all be obsessing over before the 2025 version, which will be held in Green Bay, Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.
Obviously, a way-too-early mock draft isn’t about accuracy, although, 19 of the 32 players I included last year were drafted in the first three rounds last week. All in all, 24 of 25 players who entered the draft were taken, with Leonard Taylor g as an priority free agent with the New York Jets.
Seven of the players went back to school, which is the most by far since I began doing this 12 years ago.
The 11 players who were chosen in the first round included Caleb Williams going first overall, the Cardinals selecting Marvin Harrison Jr., and Joe Alt being drafted with the No. 5 overall pick. I also had Alt, JC Latham and Olu Fashanu all being taken in the first 10 picks.
Consider this exercise less Nostradamus, more Farmer’s Almanac.
This year’s draft order is based on BetMGM.com Super Bowl LIX futures. (Las Vegas hates your team, I do not.)
A reminder: the NFL Draft has become a nice appetizer before our main course in September. A mock version of said draft is meant to educate, and even entertain. At very least, it helps you the time.
Here’s the first round of my way-too-early 2025 NFL Mock Draft:
FIRST ROUND
1. Carolina — James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee
There have been 25 drafts held this century, and 18 times a quarterback has been the first pick. Only two other positions have earned the distinction of first overall pick since 2000 — edge rusher (five times) and offensive tackle (twice). The QB1 race is currently wide open, and if it remains that way, there are multiple top-tier prospects at edge and tackle worthy of hearing the commissioner announce their name first in prime time. The Vols’ Pearce tops my list and would be a fine replacement for Brian Burns after the Panthers traded him away. The Charlotte native produced 10 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss his sophomore season in Knoxville, primarily beating SEC tackles with his explosive athleticism. If he develops his -rush arsenal and adds a bit more bulk to his 6-foot-5 frame, he’ll be hard to on.
2. Washington — Will Campbell, T, LSU
The Commanders’ starting tackles Cornelius Lucas and Andrew Wylie are both on the wrong side of 30, with Lucas facing free agency after next season. Campbell features prototypical size (6-6, 325 pounds) and started at left tackle for the Tigers as a true freshman in 2022, which means he already has two years experience protecting Washington QB Jayden Daniels’ blindside.
3. Tennessee — Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia
The Titans will face CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Anthony Richardson twice a year for the foreseeable future. A former five-star recruit, Williams hasn’t put it all together yet, but it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to foresee him traveling a similar path to the pros as former Bulldogs rusher (and No. 1 overall pick) Travon Walker.
4. N.Y. Giants — Carson Beck, QB, Georgia
If Daniel Jones fails to prove he can stay healthy and be a franchise QB next season, the G-Men can release him with a June 1 designation and save $30.5 million, according to Over the Cap. The only quarterbacks more valuable than Beck last season, according to Pro Football Focus, were three Heisman finalists (Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix). Beck is a precision er with good pocket presence.
5. New England — Kelvin Banks Jr., T, Texas
First you draft a QB (Drake Maye), then you fortify his protection and surround him with as many weapons as possible. Like LSU’s Campbell, Banks also started at left tackle as a true freshman in 2022 and has excelled ever since.
6. Denver — Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain Jr.’s future with the Broncos remains up in the air. Johnson is a press corner with outstanding size (6-2, 202), ball skills and athleticism. The former five-star recruit would’ve been the first corner off the board this year had he been eligible (possibly in 2023 as well).
7. Arizona — Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
The Cardinals didn’t draft a true defensive tackle this year despite that being one of their bigger needs. Graham has been a disruptive force against the and run for the Wolverines.
8. Las Vegas — Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
The Raiders were unable to trade up for Jayden Daniels, so GM Tom Telesco’s top priority is still finding a franchise QB. Sanders is currently the betting favorite to go No. 1 in 2025, but there’s still a lot of work to do before he guarantees himself a spot in the first round. There’s no question Coach Prime’s progeny has the talent though.
9. Tampa Bay — Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri
Chris Godwin’s contract is up after the season, and he’ll no doubt seek a significant payday. Burden’s 725 yards after the catch were third-most in the FBS last season, and he’d pair nicely with future Hall of Famer Mike Evans.
10. Indianapolis — Deone Walker, DT, Kentucky
GM Chris Ballard favors freaky physical traits, and it doesn’t get much freakier than Walker. You’re not going to find many offensive linemen who can match his stature (6-6, 348) or that can block him one-on-one. As a run-stuffer, he swallows double-teams hole, as you would expect, but he’s also far from a slouch as a rusher. Walker’s 51 pressures last season as a sophomore led all interior D-linemen in college football. He can overpower almost anyone, but he also wins with top-tier agility and finesse for his size.
11. New Orleans — Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
Landing Kool-Aid McKinstry in the second round was one of the better picks on Day 2 of the draft, but the Saints could still trade Pro Bowl corner Marshon Lattimore after June 1, when the cap hit would significantly decrease. Hunter is likely to spend most of his NFL career at cornerback, but he’s such a dynamic weapon on offense, I could see a team manufacturing a number of touches each game for him.
12. Minnesota — Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn St.
The Vikings are going to need as many rushers as possible in a division featuring quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jordan Love and Jared Goff. After spending his first two years at linebacker for the Nittany Lions, Carter is moving to edge next season, where he can utilize his special movement ability to rush the er. The Micah Parsons comparisons will be unavoidable.
13. Seattle — Earnest Greene III, T, Georgia
The Seahawks have two talented young tackles in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, but both have had a hard time staying healthy. Greene was a Freshman All-American at left tackle last season for the Bulldogs and one of the reasons Amarius Mims primarily played on the right side.
14. Jacksonville — Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame
The Jaguars haven’t had a shutdown corner since they traded Jalen Ramsey to the Rams. Morrison is a former four-star recruit with athleticism and elite ball skills. He had more forced incompletions (three) than receptions allowed (two) against Marvin Harrison Jr. in two games vs. the Buckeyes the last two seasons.
15. Pittsburgh — Denzel Burke, CB, Ohio St.
The Steelers reworked Donte Jackson’s contract after trading for him. He’ll be a free agent after next season. Burke would’ve been a borderline first-rounder this year had he left Columbus. He’s adept in both man and zone coverage, and would work well across from Joey Porter Jr.
16. Cleveland — Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma St.
The Browns could certainly be in the market for a QB if Deshaun Watson continues to flounder, but here I give them the reigning Doak Walker Award winner just in case Nick Chubb doesn’t return to form after another knee injury. Next year’s running back class is much better than this year.
17. Chicago — Tyler Booker, G, Alabama
Starting guard Teven Jenkins is a free agent after next season, and the Bears’ other starting guard, Nate Davis, will face free agency the following offseason. Booker (6-5, 335) is a road grader who first cracked the starting lineup for the Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl as a true freshman and followed that up with a stellar sophomore season in Tuscaloosa.
18. L.A. Rams — Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
The Rams kicked the tires on quarterbacks this time around and Matthew Stafford isn’t Benjamin Button. Milroe has a big arm, makes plays with his legs and could make a Jayden Daniels-like leap in development under the tutelage of new Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer.
19. L.A. Chargers — Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Jim Harbaugh collects tight ends and prospects from his alma mater. Loveland’s size (6-5, 245) and elite athleticism makes him a matchup nightmare. He would have easily been the TE2 behind only Brock Bowers this year had he been eligible.
20. Atlanta — Nic Scourton, Edge, Texas A&M
Here’s the rusher Falcons fans wish they’d drafted in the first round last Thursday. The Purdue transfer led the Big Ten in sacks (10) and produced 15 tackles for a loss as a sophomore. At 6-foot-4, 280 pounds, Scourton is taking his inside-outside versatility and nasty spin move to the SEC next season.
21. N.Y. Jets — Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Mike Williams only signed a one-year deal and it remains to be seen if he can stay on the field. McMillan’s 17 contested catches were second among FBS wide receivers to only Rome Odunze last season. He’s a big (6-5, 210), productive playmaker with excellent hands.
22. Miami — Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
The Dolphins still need to find a replacement for Christian Wilkins. Nolen was ranked as the No. 1 overall recruit by ESPN and USA Today in the 2022 recruiting class. The Texas A&M transfer began to live up to the hype in his sophomore season and if he continues to progress, he could go much higher than this.
23. Green Bay — Tacario Davis, CB, Arizona
Cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes have been productive when healthy, but durability has to be a concern at this point. Davis is a big (6-4, 195) ball-hawk and aggressive tackler against the run.
24. Dallas — Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas
Dak Prescott is in the final year of his contract, and it looks like he’ll play this season without an extension. Ewers was born and raised in the Lone Star State. It was wise for him to return to Austin for more seasoning under coach Steve Sarkisian. Ewers can make throws many QBs can’t make, but he’ll occasionally miss a layup.
25. Philadelphia — Emery Jones Jr., T, LSU
The Eagles recently signed former Jets first-rounder Mekhi Becton to a one-year deal, but reportedly plan on transitioning him to guard, meaning GM Howie Roseman still needs a succession plan for All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson. Notre Dame, Washington and Penn State all had two offensive tackles taken in the top 100 picks this year. The Tigers could have both of their tackles selected in the first round next April.
26. Houston — Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
I count nine defensive backs on the Texans’ depth chart, including starters Jeff Okudah and Jimmie Ward, who will become free agents after next season. Starks is a better prospect than former teammates Kamari Lassiter (No. 42 overall), Javon Bullard (No. 58) and Tykee Smith (No. 89), who were all drafted on Day 2 of the draft last week.
27. Cincinnati — Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio St.
Tyler Boyd remains a free agent, and Tee Higgins will likely leave in free agency after next season if he isn’t traded before then. Egbuka is returning for his senior season after missing three games due to an ankle injury in 2023. He’s a smooth route-runner who has a knack for finding the soft spot against zone coverage, and could thrive across the middle while Ja’Marr Chase and Jermaine Burton threaten defenses vertically.
28. Buffalo — Jabbar Muhammad, CB, Oregon
The Bills released All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White, and Rasul Douglas will become a free agent after this season. The Washington transfer lacks prototypical size (5-10, 183), but he makes up for it with his tenacity, instincts and toughness. Muhammad produced 17 es defensed (third in FBS), three interceptions and two sacks for the Huskies in 2023.
29. Detroit — Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon
The Lions likely give Jameson Williams one more season to figure it out before bringing in someone else to pair with superstar receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Stewart was the No. 6 overall prospect in the 2022 recruiting class and spent two seasons at Texas A&M before transferring in January. He struggled with injuries during his time with the Aggies, but Stewart is an advanced route runner with speed and the ability to make tacklers miss.
30. Baltimore — Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas
Devontez Walker was a solid value in the fourth round this year for the Ravens, but Bond would give Lamar Jackson the type of vertical threat he hasn’t had since they traded Marquise Brown to Arizona. The Alabama transfer reminds me a lot of Denver Broncos playmaker Marvin Mims Jr.
31. San Francisco — Josh Conerly Jr., T, Oregon
The 49ers added some talent on the interior offensive line this draft, but if Colton McKivitz doesn’t improve as a blocker, right tackle will need to be addressed next year. Conerly was the No. 1 offensive tackle in the 2022 recruiting class and allowed only one sack in his first season as a full-time starter, protecting Bo Nix’s blind side as a sophomore.
32. Kansas City — Jack Sawyer, Edge, Ohio St.
Much like Patrick Mahomes on offense, the Chiefs need to constantly replenish Chris Jones’ ing cast on defense. According to Pro Football Focus, Sawyer was the only edge defender in the FBS to earn 85-plus grades as a rusher and run defender in 2023.
