Thin-slice judgments regarding the 2024 NFL draft that concluded Saturday in Detroit, home to the “San Diego Lions”:
Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers got three future starters who’ll prove better than NFL average.
They also found a sixth-round running back who’ll help this year.
Smooth, sound giant Joe Alt, chosen fifth overall by Harbaugh and former longtime Ravens scout Joe Hortiz, will hold down a tackle spot for a decade.
Pencil in Alt, 21, for a few Pro Bowls.
Slot receiver Ladd McConkey’s stunning speed will translate to the NFL.
He’ll zoom upfield and snag quick-hitters hitters and seam shots. He’ll pop big gains off perimeter screens.
Enhanced by Harbaugh’s ground game and 6-foot-6 Justin Herbert’s middle-field vision and accuracy, Georgia’s McConkey will defy the high-bust rate for receivers taken among the top-35.
Linebacker Junior Colson will overcome his so-so -defense by applying the chess he learned under Jesse Minter, the Michigan coordinator who followed Harbaugh to the Chargers.
The NFL bona fides of Michigan’s defensive system, which succeeds at creating the illusion of complexity to offenses, will give Colson an edge as he quarterbacks L.A.’s front.
Consider: Successful NFL coach Mike Macdonald coordinated Michigan’s defense in 2021 while also mentoring Minter. Macdonald ed John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens in 2022. Last year, he oversaw a D that led the NFL in points and sacks. Impressed, the Seattle Seahawks hired Macdonald to replace head coach Pete Carroll.
Drafted Saturday, Troy running back Kimani Vidal somewhat resembles compact Blake Corum of Harbaugh’s final Michigan team.
The 5-foot-8, 213-pound Vidal will run for tough yardage and pop a few longer runs.
Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman won’t allow Vidal to be overly exposed as a protector.
• Steelers draftee Troy Fautanu will have a solid rookie year as a guard or tackle or both.
• I trust former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah that the powerful, quick Fautanu will succeed this year. The former Washington left tackle may be more suited to guard, in part because he’s a shade under 6-foot-4, but Jeremiah said he made good use of his long arms at tackle.
• The Steelers’ rookie class will strengthen the offense and defense more than most first-year groups do.
Slot receiver Roman Wilson, a speedster with good hands, won’t be as elusive as ex-Steelers playmaker Diontae Johnson but will prove a more reliable teammate especially as a blocker.
True to NFL scouts’ insights gathered by Bob McGinn, the veteran NFL-connected writer of GoLongTD.com, Steelers linebacker Payton Wilson will read the NFL game well. The North Carolina State alum will speed up the whole defense with his instincts and athleticism, a stunning feat for a rookie.
• QB Michael Penix Jr. will benefit from getting some first-team reps in coming weeks despite the presence of Falcons veteran Kirk Cousins. The 35-year-old will be coming back from a torn Achilles tendon, freeing up some snaps.
In addition, Penix’s “turn it loose” downfield style that led Washington to the national-title game, will jibe with “go up and get it” large receivers Drake London and pseudo-tight end Kyle Pitts.
• The Vikings will get an OK rookie season from edge rusher Dallas Turner. But to get him, they gave up too much draft capital — five picks, including a pair of second-rounders to rise from 42nd to 23rd, and a 2025 third-rounder as part of a three-pick payoff to climb six more spots.
• Carlsbad’s Kevin O’Connell will get a second contract extension as a result of Minnesota’s selection of QB J.J. McCarthy 10th overall.
O’Connell last year squeezed victories out of QBs less gifted than McCarthy.
The third-year head coach will guide the former Michigan star, who’s just 21, to a respectable rookie season even it means backing up Sam Darnold early in the season.
• GM Tom Telesco will be glad he went “best player available” in taking tight end Brock Bowers, the 13th selection, in his first Raiders draft.
Not only sure-handed, supple and 241 pounds, Bowers can tap into a burst of instant speed when it appears that’s not possible. It’s a freaky trait.
Bowers isn’t comparable to George Kittle because he’s not a point-of-attack blocker. Nor is he as forceful in the mosh pit as Travis Kelce, who’s heavier.
That matters at tight end. It means Raiders coaches will be hard-pressed to maintain fresh looks for Bowers. But he’s versatile enough as a movement blocker and rusher to expand the play menu beyond a conventional tight end’s.
• The best explanation for why explosive, good-sized Texas WR Adonai Mitchell wasn’t taken until the 52nd pick — by the Colts — came from McGinn’s numerous sources among longtime NFL talent men.
They said managing Type I diabetes isn’t easy, and that difficulties in that area may have correlated to Mitchell’s uneven play with the Longhorns.
Seemingly the Colts and Mitchell will redouble those efforts, improving the odds that Mitchell, a 6-foot-2 split end and flanker who had only one drop last year, can combine with WR Michael Pittman to second-year QB Anthony Richardson.
• Les Snead and Sean McVay’s Rams made promising selections on defense.
• The pairing of great offensive line coach Bill Callahan and powerful tackle JC Latham bodes well for the Titans and second-year QB Will Levis. But the skepticism of former scout Randy Mueller about Latham’s lateral agility would seem to argue against the announced move to left tackle.
+ It’s encouraging that Brad Holmes, GM of the “San Diego Lions” — who employ four San Diegans on their coaching staff — drew upon his own expertise in selecting cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw with his first two picks. Holmes, a former defensive linemen with North Carolina A&T, said cornerbacks were his focus for more than a decade as a Rams cross-checker scout.
• Proving once again Harbaugh knows how to identify and develop talent, 13 of his former Michigan players were drafted the past three days.
• Harbaugh’s much-circulated comment that offensive linemen are weapons makes sense. More importantly, it reinforces his team-building message, in an era in which quarterbacks and receivers drive the media coverage.
