Happy Draft Day!
There’s still plenty of uncertainty (outside of the first pick), but some things have come into better focus.
There’s no time to lose. Let’s get right into it.
MOCK PREAMBLE
Last season, I was the third-most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print, according to The Huddle Report. I’m tied for first overall (out of 172) over the past five years.
The draft has become the Super Bowl of the NFL’s second season — the NFL doesn’t have an off-season — and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you the time.
Follow me on X (formerly known as Twitter) @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here’s the final version of my 2024 NFL Mock Draft:
First round
1. Chicago from Carolina (2-15) — Caleb Williams, QB, USC, Jr.
Nothing’s official until the commissioner says the name, but the draft really begins with the second overall pick. Top needs: QB, Edge, OL
2. Washington (4-13) — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU, Sr.
There were teams who tried to pry this pick away from new GM Adam Peters, including the Raiders, but I don’t believe Peters ever truly considered it. Daniels’ skill-set and stature is very reminiscent of three-time All-Pro QB Randall Cunningham. Top needs: QB, Edge, T
3. New England (4-13) — Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina, So.
Eliot Wolf, the top executive in charge of personnel, now has control of the 53-man roster and will reportedly be working closely with new head coach Jerod Mayo. I still believe the Patriots will make a pick here and it will probably be whomever Washington doesn’t select between Daniels and Maye, but unlike the Commanders, Wolf will probably truly entertain trading down if the price is right. The “Godfather” offer could come from the Giants or Vikings, who both covet the former Tar Heel. Maye’s prototypical size, elite arm talent and ability as a runner are the combination of tools teams normally invest a pick this valuable in. Top needs: QB, T, WR
4. Arizona (4-13) — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio St., Jr.
Harrison to the Cardinals feels inevitable. If you were to “Weird Science” a wide receiver, the computer would almost certainly produce the No. 1 player on my Big Board. Top needs: WR, G, DL
5. L.A. Chargers (5-12) — JC Latham, T, Alabama, Jr.
For me, this pick still comes down to a catcher or protector. Either way, new head coach Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz will have franchise QB Justin Herbert’s best interests in mind. I can’t fathom them ing on Harrison if he’s still available. Perhaps they auction off the pick to the Vikings, Broncos or potentially the Giants so one of those teams can draft J.J. McCarthy. If so, Latham is a super-sized tackle with elite strength and the movement skills of a Pro Bowl-caliber guard. Even if they stay put, he could be the pick over Notre Dame’s Joe Alt. Top needs: WR, T, DL
6. New York Giants (6-11) — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington, Jr.
The G-Men will definitely be working the phones, trying to move up for a quarterback, but it won’t be J.J. McCarthy. If Drake Maye is available at No. 3, I could see GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll pushing all their chips into the middle of the table, and striking a deal with the Patriots to secure Maye as Daniel Jones’ replacement. Big Blue hasn’t had a true No. 1 receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. Odunze features elite size, speed and strength with excellent hands. Top needs: WR, CB, RB
7. Tennessee (6-11) — Joe Alt, T, Notre Dame, Jr.
Alt cemented his elite status at the combine in Indy and would be a top-3 pick in almost any other draft. Top needs: T, DL, S
8. Atlanta (7-10) — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU, Jr.
This is GM Terry Fontenot staying true to his draft board. Nabers is elite after the catch, a terror in the open field and gives the Falcons an embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball. Top needs: Edge, DL, T
9. Chicago (7-10) — Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas, Jr.
GM Ryan Poles currently only has four draft picks to play with … well, three after the Bears draft Caleb Williams, so trading down definitely makes sense, but they stick and pick the first defensive player of the draft. It would be the first time since the merger (1970) there was only one. Only two defenders were drafted in 1971, 1983, 1995 and 2021. The Last time was 1969, when “Mean” Joe Greene was selected by the Steelers at No. 4 and that was it. Murphy is a former four-star recruit who shares a similar skill-set and physical traits with Baltimore Ravens All-Pro Justin Madubuike. Top needs: QB, Edge, WR
10. New York Jets (7-10) — Taliese Fuaga, T, Oregon St., Jr.
GM Joe Douglas solidified the offensive line by g Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses, but there’s still more work to be done. Fuaga is a well-rounded mauler and will likely be the Beavers’ first offensive lineman ever selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Top needs: S, T, WR
11. Minnesota (7-10) — JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan, Jr.
By securing the No. 23 overall pick from the Texans, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has enough trade ammunition to jump into the top-5 and draft a QB. The problem is Drake Maye is their top target and he’s only in play if he falls to the third-pick because the Commanders aren’t dealing. If he goes No. 2 overall or the Patriots draft him at three, then it becomes a Will They or Won’t They with teams looking to trade back to see if they can land McCarthy. Here, McCarthy falls in their lap. Top needs: Edge, G, QB
12. Philadelphia from Denver (8-9) — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo, Jr.
I normally don’t project trades, but GM Howie Roseman has traded the Eagles’ first pick in seven of the last 10 drafts. Here Roseman jumps up for a top-tier cornerback prospect. Mitchell features elite speed (4.33 40-yard dash in Indy) and prototypical size for the position. He’s a proven ball-hawk who can play outside or inside and wins with top-tier athleticism and physicality. He produced six interceptions and 44 es defensed the past two seasons. Top needs: CB, LB, S
13. Las Vegas (8-9) — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama, So.
Could the Raiders pull the trigger on Penix here if they fail in trading up for Jayden Daniels? Possibly, but Arnold fits a big need as well. He’s relatively inexperienced — he was a former safety recruit — but he’s been one of the better run defenders at the position and has proven a quick-study in coverage. Top needs: CB, G, QB
14. New Orleans (9-8) — Olu Fashanu, T, Penn St., Jr.
The Saints currently have two former first-rounders on their offensive line who aren’t playing up to their potential. Tackle Trevor Penning, who took a major step back in his second season after a really good rookie year, and guard Cesar Ruiz. You may have noticed Fashanu being drafted in the middle of most recent mock drafts, and not in the top-10. Frankly, I’m a little perplexed. There’s still room for improvement in the run game, but when its all said and done, he could end up being this draft’s best pure -protector. Top needs: CB, DL, WR
15. Indianapolis (9-8) — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia, Jr.
I could see GM Chris Ballard trading up to secure the two-time Mackey Award winner in order to pair him with his young, talented QB Anthony Richardson. Top needs: S, LB, WR
16. Seattle (9-8) — Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa, Jr.
It wouldn’t surprise me if GM John Schneider targets the versatile Iowa defensive back, especially after releasing Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams. DeJean would be a tremendous fit for new coach Mike Macdonald’s defense. Top needs: G, DL, TE
17. Jacksonville (9-8) — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama, Jr.
The Jaguars haven’t had a true shutdown corner since they traded Jalen Ramsey. McKinstry started as a true freshman in a Nick Saban defense and was first-team All-SEC his sophomore season. He features prototypical size with speed and brings physicality in coverage and against the run. There’s no panic in his game. He’s also provides value as a punt-returner. Top needs: CB, OL, CB
18. Cincinnati (9-8) — Troy Fautanu, T, Washington, Jr.
Free agency created two major voids for the Bengals with the losses of offensive tackle Jonah Williams and defensive tackle DJ Reader, but maintaining the health of Joe Burrow will always be priority No. 1. Fautanu is a Pro Bowl-level talent who is versatile enough to play anywhere on the O-line. Top needs: WR, T, DL
19. L.A. Rams (10-7) — Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama, Jr.
We witnessed the Rams’ defense undergo a youth movement last season, and that will continue into 2024 after future first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Donald decided he had better things to do than haunt the dreams of opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators. Turner’s impressive performance in Indianapolis — 4.46 40-yard dash and a 40.5 inch vertical jump — validated the former five-star recruit’s immense potential at the next level. Him, Kobie Turner and Byron Young would create a formidable young trio rushing the er. Top needs: Edge, LB, CB
20. Pittsburgh (10-7) — Graham Barton, OL, Duke, Sr.
With the QB questions laid to rest, GM Omar Khan still must find a center and a replacement for Dan Moore Jr. at tackle in this draft. I believe Barton could thrive anywhere on the O-line in the NFL. Some scouts will question his size/length for the tackle position — he’s 6-5, 313 pounds, but his arms measured a tick under 33 inches. He features the versatility with 34 of his 39 career starts coming at left tackle with the Blue Devils (the other five were at center). He’s a technically sound, sticky blocker with quickness and competitive tendencies that will likely land him in the first round. Top needs: WR, C, T
21. Miami (11-6) — Jared Verse, Edge, Florida St., Jr.
The Raiders set Christian Wilkins’ soul on fire to the tune of $110 million, and now the Dolphins have a significant hole on their interior D-line, but both edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are coming off injuries as well. Verse would’ve likely been a first-round pick had he declared after last season. He regularly wins with strength, and features violent hands with NFL-caliber explosiveness at the snap. Top needs: DL, G, Edge
22. Denver from Philadelphia (11-6) — Bo Nix, QB, Oregon, Sr.
With Russell Wilson officially out of the picture, coach Sean Payton will be searching for his type of quarterback, but McCarthy was off the board, so Nix is Plan B. The Broncos have eight picks in this draft, but they don’t have a second-rounder, which might hinder them trading up. Preferably, GM George Paton would be able to trade down in this scenario and still draft the Heisman finalist. Top needs: QB, C, CB
23. Minnesta from Houston via Cleveland (11-6) — Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois, Jr.
If the Vikings aren’t able to trade up for a quarterback, they’ll likely use this pick to boost a rush now missing Danielle Hunter. Newton may be undersized for some teams, but he’s been a disruptive force the last two seasons against the run and . Top needs: Edge, G, QB
24. Dallas (12-5) — Amarius Mims, T, Georgia, Jr.
The Cowboys offensive line is in rebuilding mode after losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz in free agency. Mims is still very raw, and he dealt with multiple ankle injuries last season, but he towers over most of the competition and he moves easy considering his size. His athletic potential and his 2022 tape will be hard to ignore. Top needs: RB, C, WR
25. Green Bay (9-8) — Tyler Guyton, T, Oklahoma, Jr.
Following the departures of David Bakhtiari and Jon Runyan Jr., refurbishing the offensive line is now a priority for the Packers. Guyton is a former defensive end who primarily played right tackle for the Sooners, but has the prototypical size and athletic traits to switch to the left side in the pros. Top needs: G, S, CB
26. Tampa Bay (9-8) — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, Sr.
Here’s a curve ball. Current Bucs advisor and Super Bowl-winning coach Bruce Arians loves Penix’s deep-ball acumen and toughness. Top needs: Edge, IOL, CB
27. Arizona from Houston (10-7) — Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA, Sr.
The Cardinals landed the best player in this draft (Marvin Harrison Jr.) with the No. 4 overall pick. Here coach Jonathan Gannon receives more talent for his defensive line. Latu specializes in hand-to-hand combat, features a pro-ready arsenal of -rush moves and became the first Bruin to win the Lombardi Award (outstanding lineman) and Hendricks Award (best defensive end) last season. Medical evaluations of a neck injury the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year suffered during his time with Washington will have a big impact on his draft stock. Top needs: WR, G, DL
28. Buffalo (11-6) — Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU, Jr.
Frankly, if Thomas is available in the 20 to 22 range, I could see GM Brandon Beane jump up to grab him after trading away Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency. Thomas’ physical gifts are off the charts. He’s 6-foot-2, and he ran a 4.33 40-yard-dash while hitting 22.91 mph on the GPS at the combine. Catching es from Josh Allen could put him on a fast track to super-stardom. Top needs: S, Edge, WR
29. Detroit (12-5) — Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon, Jr.
The Lions have an elite O-line and it’s the engine that makes this offense go. Powers-Johnson entered the Senior Bowl as a fringe first-rounder, and only helped himself with his performance. He was an unanimous All-American and first-ever Pac-12 player to win the Rimington Award (nation’s top center). JPJ dominated at both guard and center during practices in Mobile. Powers-Johnson is the type of player coach Dan Campbell will welcome with open arms. Top needs: Edge, G, CB
30. Baltimore (13-4) — Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn St., Jr.
Trust me, if a prospect falls through the cracks, he will almost certainly end up with the Ravens. Robinson’s still developing his technique, and there was minimal production in Happy Valley, but his first-step explosiveness and speed-to-power variation is a rare commodity.Top needs: WR, G, Edge
31. San Francisco (12-5) — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson, Jr.
The Niners’ top three corners (Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas) will all be free agents after next season. Wiggins might need to add some strength to his frame, but he already has elite ball skills, athletic abilities and is capable of thriving in man or zone coverage. Top needs: T, G, CB
32. Kansas City (11-6) — Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas, Jr.
It looks like Rashee Rice’s legal troubles aren’t going away anytime soon, and Marquise Brown will be a free agent after next season. Worthy is an elite vertical threat who can struggle against physical press coverage, but you can’t teach his world-class speed. Building up his play strength in the NFL and catching es from Patrick Mahomes could unlock another level. Top needs: T, Edge, WR
