We should all be as fortunate as the Chargers when we goof up.
By losing 12 of 17 games last year after oddmakers and pundits forecast a winning season from them, these Inspector Clouseaus reaped several windfalls that could turn around the franchise.
One, coach Brandon Staley didn’t return for the final year of his contract and was replaced by Jim Harbaugh.
That’s tin to platinum.
Two, the Chargers received the fifth pick in a draft that former NFL scouts describe as top-heavy.
That’s a golden ticket.
Three, ex-scouts say three or four quarterbacks will go among the top four picks Thursday night in Detroit.
For the Chargers, that’s what the quants call a force multiplier.
The run on QBs and having Justin Herbert, 26, under contract through 2029 means Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz can pick any player they’d want fifth except for perhaps one non-QB.
Former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah says the Chargers have three clear options on how to proceed Thursday night and grades them all as winners.
Select a Grade-A left tackle in Joe Alt or a bulldozing right tackle such as J.C. Latham or Taliese Fuaga; take a Grade-A receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers; or trade the pick for good value.
The Chargers weren’t supposed to be bad enough to end up near the fifth pick.
Pushing hard last year for a first West title or home playoff game in their 11 seasons together, John Spanos and Tom Telesco maxed out the ‘23 salary cap with an assist from Herbert, who was in the final year of a team-friendly rookie contract that freed up money for other positions.
Oddsmakers projected 9 1/2 wins, but when the Chargers instead went 5-12, smart Bolts fans rejoiced that awfulness had supplanted mediocrity.
The chef’s kiss from the ‘23 Bolts came four days after Herbert broke his right index finger in a defeat that dropped the team to 5-8. The blowout defeat to the Raiders was so pathetic that Dean and John Spanos fired Staley and Telesco the next day.
The door was thus opened to Harbaugh.
A new era had begun, and years from now, the underachieving ‘23 club could be viewed as a franchise game-changer.
Because of Harbaugh.
He’s not the typical Spanos head coach. Most were inexpensive, malleable types who were better assistants than team-builders.
Harbaugh took his second 49ers team to a Super Bowl. His third Stanford club bullied USC as few teams ever hammered a Pete Carroll squad.
The final Michigan team he assembled earned the school’s first undisputed national title since 1948.
“I’m not sure people realize how formidable Harbaugh is,” Joe Banner, the former Philadephia Eagles president who hired Andy Reid to his first head coaching job, said on social media.
Harbaugh turned down a lucrative offer from Michigan to return to the NFL although not before he wisely got the Spanoses to agree to beefing up the franchise’s “infrastructure”.
(That’s a euphemism for trying to win the Super Bowl trophy.)
Now Hortiz, the longtime Ravens scout recommended by Harbaugh’s brother, John, will try to make the most of the gifts left them by the final Spanos-Telesco-Staley team.
The goodies include the AFC’s second-highest draft slot and eight chips overall, including two in the fourth round, the surplus pick coming from the Bears in the Keenan Allen trade after Allen refused Hortiz and Harbaugh’s request to take a pay cut.
Improving his odds in the draft, Harbaugh brings an insider’s perspective to the evaluation of dozens of players in this year’s class whom he either recruited, coached or coached against. Eighteen of his Michigan players took part in the recent NFL scouting combine. He and his defensive coordinator Jesse Minter coached against Harrison and Odunze, among many others.
“It’s going to be (an advantage),” Harbaugh said. “I don’t know how much, I don’t have the scientific percentage on that, but I think it does help.”
My guess is Hortiz will draft two players from his final Michigan team. The better fits among ex-Wolverines with the Chargers appear to be, in order, linebacker Junior Colson, defensive back Mike Sainristil, running back Blake Corum and receiver Roman Wilson.
Latham, powerful and gritty, meets the Harbaugh prototype as a right-side sledgehammer in coordinator Greg Roman’s ground-based offense. On the other hand, former NFL GM Randy Mueller of The Athletic questioned whether Latham has the lateral agility to thrive in protection.
It can’t be disputed that the Chargers are set up better in this draft than any of their AFC West rivals, none of whom own a top-10 pick or as many chips in the top-four rounds.
While the Chargers likely won’t match the 13-3 record of Harbaugh’s first 49ers team, they figure to have established a physical style by this time next year with assistance from several players they draft this weekend.
