If you’d like to learn the “why” behind NFL play outcomes, dig into former NFL quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan’s website, The QB School.
The San Diegan’s breakdowns of “All-22” videos delve deeper than similar efforts by NFL media partners.
I asked O’Sullivan this week what he’ll look for Sunday from the San Francisco 49ers’ offense in the Super Bowl. To my surprise, the ex-QB began with neither Brock Purdy nor the ing game.
“The first thing I’m going to be interested in,” he said, “is how are they able to run the ball.”
If the Baltimore Ravens erred by not running it more often in the AFC championship against the Kansas City Chiefs, who won 17-10, don’t expect 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan to err likewise.
“When I think of the identity and the DNA of the 49ers’ offense,” O’Sullivan said, “it starts with what they do in the run game — both schematically and personnel-wise.”
DNA indeed.
Shanahan’s father, Mike, was a run-game believer. His trust in running back Terrell Davis and line coach Alex Gibbs’ zone-blocking schemes led to a pair of Denver Broncos victories in the only Super Bowls that Mike reached as a head coach.
Today’s NFL is far friendlier to ing, so don’t look for Niners back Christian McCaffrey to rush 30 times in just three quarters, as Davis did in Super Bowl XXXII, played 26 years ago in San Diego.
Kyle Shanahan was in the Mission Valley stadium as Davis, a Lincoln High School graduate who was more forceful than his listed 206 pounds implied, pounded out 157 yards and three touchdowns despite missing the second quarter after being kicked in the head. Kyle was also there 10 years earlier, at age 9, for the first Super Bowl staged in San Diego. He saw Washington’s Timmy Smith rush for 202 yards behind Joe Bugel’s counter-loving Hogs, keeping the ball from a Denver offense coordinated by Kyle’s dad.
In today’s -first NFL, run games are measured by efficiency more than volume.
To hear O’Sullivan, the 49ers’ “comprehensive” ground game can Kyle Shanahan’s bid to win his first Super Bowl in three tries, once as a coordinator.
“Can the 49ers control the line of scrimmage?” he said. “Can they make Kansas City bring extra people to the line of scrimmage?”
Purdy stands a close second on O’Sullivan’s Niners checklist.
Specifically, the second-year QB’s improvisational efforts.
“His capacity to extend plays feels like it’s the thing that has separated him from other guys that have played in that system,” he said, referring to Kyle Shanahan’s former QBs such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins.
O’Sullivan praised Purdy’s performance in the NFC championship, calling some of pocket moves “world class” and lauding him after other plays as “a big-boy playmaker” who showed “massive stones.”
Purdy made sharp anticipation throws in structure, a favorite trait of O’Sullivan’s. His quick processing enabled a shrewd throwaway.
But the ex-QB’s video review found Purdy at fault for an interception and perhaps fortunate on two crucial completions. A Chiefs’ defense that’s much better than Detroit’s at defending the — but perhaps less capable versus the run — may have better defended some of the riskier throws.
“So,” O’Sullivan told me, “when Purdy extends plays Sunday, how does it go? Does he throw some balls that could, should and maybe will get picked? Does he use his legs to get first downs? To get big plays down the field?”
O’Sullivan said the ground game could make the explosive 49ers -catchers — including McCaffrey — even more formidable at gaining yards after the catch. Wearing down Chiefs All-Pro lineman Chris Jones could be more possible, too.
The ex-QB didn’t predict a winner, but the building blocks he mentioned give Purdy, 24, a shot to become the youngest QB other than Steelers’ 23-year-old Ben Roethlisberger to win a Super Bowl.
