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Stat Stories: Departing from patience, will Padres’ more aggressive approach solve their offensive woes?

The Padres took the league by storm in 2020 thanks to a patient offense. Now, staring at a 4-13 stretch, does the answer to this offensive slump hinge on taking the opposite approach?

San Diego Padres' Jake Cronenworth walks back to the dugout after striking out in the eighth inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets Saturday, June 5, 2021, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan)
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San Diego Padres’ Jake Cronenworth walks back to the dugout after striking out in the eighth inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets Saturday, June 5, 2021, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan)
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Sitting inside Coors Field this week after the Padres dropped their 12th game in 16 days, manager Jayce Tingler made somewhat of a surprising remark about what it would take for the Padres’ offense to get back to a functional level.

“We’re going to swing the bats, be aggressive and see if we can get something going offensively and slowly get this thing turned around,” Tingler said.

The comment showed a twinge of frustration over this offensive spell that has seen the Padres average fewer than three runs a game since May 30.

Maybe it was a spillover from that fact the Padres, more often than not on this 4-13 stretch, have wasted strong pitching by not putting up enough runs.

But more important than any emotion that emitted through the Zoom monitor in Denver, Tingler’s comments were significant simply because it is a staunch departure for a manager, and organization, that has preached patience at the plate.

The Padres, purposefully, are near the top of MLB when it comes to the number of pitches seen. They routinely let balls go even when they are in the strike zone, more than any team in baseball. It is part of an approach that places a on plate discipline.

To get out of this slump, though — one that has watched the Padres go from first in the NL West to third — Tingler wants to flip the script to see his club be more eager to jump on fastballs early in counts, generate baserunners and create any type of pressure on opposing defenses.

It is a calculation that to get back the patient offense that took the league by storm in 2020, the Padres need to do just the opposite for at least the short term.

“Collectively, as a group, we have to get on base. The more we can do that the more pressure we create and the more opportunities we provide,” Tingler said.

Notably, the Padres have only placed above-average pressure on the opposing team’s starting pitcher, a stat measured by average leverage index, four times since the start of June. That is well off the league average.

Over this stretch of games, the planned patience might have given way to paralyzing ivity.

Since May 30, the Padres have watched more strikes go by than all but three teams in the major leagues.

On the rare occasion they do swing at strikes, their rate has been one of the worst in baseball. They have swung and missed at 11.8 percent of strikes against them. This is particularly troubling because these are the pitches the Padres’ lineup should do the most damage against.

It has resulted in this dismal stretch of offense and lack of any pressure. The Padres have generated the fewest number of baserunners in the National League since the losing streak started. On the season, they rank No. 24 in MLB in baserunners per game.

“Right now it’s one of those things where we’re having some trouble putting the ball in play,” Wil Myers said this week after a 3-2 loss to the Rockies where they once again did not find enough offense to a strong combined outing from Dinelson Lamet and Ryan Weathers.

That has been a trademark of this losing streak, in which the Padres have lost six of eight games in which the pitching staff has held the opponent to under five runs.

“Two runs (allowed) in their seven innings of work, that will give you a chance,” Tingler said after Lamet and Weathers’ outing.

It should, but the offense has not obliged. Thus, the new directive to be aggressive.

So far, the proposition has worked.

In the two games since Tingler’s remark, the Padres have scored seven and four runs respectively. It was the first time in this losing streak where the Padres strung together two games of over four runs. The Padres lost both games, and had stretches of poor offense in both, but there was some life.

Most of it was thanks to an aggressive approach.

Nearly all the Padres’ scoring plays in Wednesday’s 8-7 loss to the Rockies were thanks to at-bats where players attacked the first strike.

Jake Cronenworth smashed a home run to right field in the sixth inning on the first fastball he saw in the zone, a 96 mph four-seamer. It was a welcome sign for a group that has struggled to get a barrel to high-speed pitches in June.

Cronenworth’s homer was complemented by Fernando Tatis Jr.’s similar at bat. Tatis squared a first-strike change-up 477 yards to center field for his 21st home run of the season.

Tatis might be the epitome of why being aggressive can propel you out of a slump. Throughout this season he leads the team in percentage of first-pitch swings and swing percentage. Conversely, he also leads the team in number of barreled balls.

“We need to get it going. We all realize that and there is no doubt about it,” Tingler said after the loss. “I think there were some good signs today… but we have to get it going.”

It is a small sample size, but at least it is progress. The Padres desperately need something to hang their hat on as they limp back home for a homestand against the Reds.

Maybe this can be it.

Reynolds is a Union-Tribune intern.

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